Jets Week 11 Recap and Week 12 Prediction

A season of historic inconsistency rolls on for the 5-5 New York Jets.

Just one game after rattling Drew Brees and taking down the high-powered Saints, Geno Smith and Co. laid an egg in Buffalo, getting trounced 37-14.

In this case, the stats tell the whole story, and it starts with the quarterback. I believe quarterbacks get too much of the blame when things go poorly and a disproportionate amount of praise when their team wins. However, a lot of the onus should be placed on the shoulders of Smith after this debacle. He finished with a deplorable QBR of 0.7, good for 18th worst all time. (By comparison, Mark Sanchez amassed a 0.3 QBR in the tenth game of his rookie year against the Patriots.) In fact, Geno’s TD-Int ratio is worse than Sanchez’s was at this point in his career. Smith’s is 8-16 while Mark’s was 10-16.

Getting back to the Buffalo game, the second round pick committed two turnovers in a span of 48 seconds, handing the Bills 10 points. This came on the heels of EJ Manuel and TJ Graham hooking up for a 34-yard touchdown to put the home team in front 10-0.

The Jets’ rookie QB played as bad as he could play. His Bills counterpart tore up Gang Green’s secondary to the tune of a 121.9 QB rating, a pair of touchdowns and four 30+ yard completions. Antonio Cromartie, a pro bowler from last season, was burned on one of those long gains, a 43-yard touchdown to Marquise Goodwin. Simply put, he can no longer be trusted as a no. 1 corner in this league, while fellow defensive back Dee Milliner has been terrible for most of the season. These two must step up their games if they want to make the playoffs.

However, the Jets can erase the embarrassment of last week with a gutsy effort in Baltimore this weekend. As most games have this season, this one will come down to turnovers for Rex Ryan’s bunch. New York is 5-0 this season when either splitting or winning the turnover battle. Not-so-coincidentally, they are 0-5 when losing in takeaway differential, and are minus-15 in those games! (They are minus-14 for the year, last in the NFL.) It’s not rocket science: don’t turn the ball over, and you’ll probably win.

Scoring first will be another point of emphasis in this contest. The Jets are not equipped to play from behind. When they score first, they are 5-1. When the opponent gets on the board first, New York is 0-4. The key to putting up points early is running the ball. Let Chris Ivory wear down the front seven of the Ravens, get Geno some quick completions early (slants, outs, etc.), and give him some opportunities to run.

Baltimore’s run offense doesn’t scare anybody, even though Ray Rice had his first 100-yard game of the season last week in Chicago. New York’s defense is the best in the league at stopping the run, bur Joe Flacco is a different story. His big-play ability will be huge in this game, especially to speedster Torry Smith who will likely be matched up with Cromartie. Dennis Thurman has to give Cro safety help over the top in passing situations. If he doesn’t, Flacco and Smith will have big games and the Jets will be staring at a sub-.500 record for the first time this year.

A New York win in this one could essentially knock the Ravens out of the playoff picture. On the other hand, a Baltimore victory would put Rex’s job back in jeopardy and leave his squad in quite a tough predicament with five games game left on their schedule. In the end, I have the Jets stealing one in Maryland with Geno holding onto the ball, Ivory going over the century mark in rushing yards, and Gang Green’s D coming to play and allowing under 275 total yards.

My Prediction: Jets- 17    Ravens- 13